Risk Analytics
3 active alertsExpected Revenue
$487K
Base scenario
VaR (95%)
-$192K
Revenue at risk
P5 Downside
$180K
Worst 5% outcome
Risk Score
6.2/10
Moderate — review pricing
How to read these numbers
Expected Revenue
The most likely revenue outcome for a typical event, based on your historical average. Think of this as your "plan" number.
VaR - Value at Risk (95%)
In 95 out of 100 scenarios, your revenue loss won't exceed this amount. The worst-case 5% of scenarios are not included. A lower VaR number is better.
P5 Downside
Your revenue floor in the worst 5% of scenarios - severe weather, opponent cancellation, or major demand collapse. Plan your minimum operating budget around this number.
Risk Score (X/10)
Measures revenue uncertainty relative to your average. 10/10 = high uncertainty (not necessarily high losses). Caused by: low fill rates, uniform pricing, or small event sample size. Reduce it by: dynamic pricing, filling more seats, collecting more data.
Revenue Distribution
Monte Carlo simulation — 1,000 scenarios
Scenario Analysis
Revenue outcomes by probability-weighted scenario
Active Risk Alerts
Lower Bowl A underpriced
Competitor venues are 22% higher for equivalent events. Estimated revenue leak: $18K this event.
Weather risk — Apr 12
60% rain probability. Historical demand softens 8–12% in rain. Consider flexible pricing trigger.
Upper Bowl demand softening
Velocity down 14% vs. 30-day average. Current trajectory suggests 78% fill vs. 91% target.
VIP Suite sold out
All 48 VIP seats confirmed. Demand suggests waitlist opportunity — 12 additional enquiries on record.
How to reduce your risk score
1
Implement dynamic pricing on 3 events
Reduces price variance risk
2
Set a fill rate target of 70%+
Addresses occupancy risk
3
Collect 2+ seasons of data
Improves forecast confidence